彭博：A股大跌、人民币走软，多重信号表明中国市场问题不断增加-XFA新华财金
房艺谈
日益加深的不安感正席卷中国金融市场。
上证指数在短短5个月内就下跌20%，进入了熊市。在香港，人民币创下4年来最长连跌记录。企业债务违约越来越多。
这种担忧有国内的原因：中国的去杠杆化减少了可用的流动性，这威胁着世界第二大经济体的发展。然后与美国进行一场不可预测的贸易战。投资者有一长串抛售股票的理由。
目前为止，当局试图安抚市场紧张的情绪，但收效甚微窦智孔吻戏，从下调存款准备金率到在金融报纸上发表乐观的社论。上证指数失守3000点—这是长期被视为会促使政府干预的水平—降低了投资者逢低买进的兴趣青椒炒素鸡 。过去6天落雁沙 ，上证指数被超卖，为2013年以来最长时间，自1月份以来股市累计亏损1.8万亿美元。
交银国际控股有限公司首席策略师洪灏表示：“中国经济的基本面非常糟糕，市场上的沽售压力仍然很大。”
周二，上证指数跌0.5%斯库林，能源和金融类股领跌殷亚东 。以科技股为主的深证成指在2月份就已经进入了熊市土壤修复概念股 。MSCI中国指数的主要成分股为海外股票欺凌游戏2 ，较2018年的高点下滑了14%。
股市抛售是一个明显的迹象八极灵数 ，表明中国市场崩溃有多快。就在几个月前，在经历了多年令人失望的回报之后，投资者似乎终于得到了一笔更好的交易。年初刘福助 ，上证综指迎来了自2009年以来的最好的开门红御魂忍 ，而当时人民币正以至少是2007年以来最快的速度飙升。
大幅下跌的情况看起来更像是2015年的时候，当时股市泡沫破裂和人民币贬值让全球市场动荡不安妈的阿库娅 。尽管政府最终成功控制了市五庄观副本 场，但他们一直在寻求解决更大的债务问题夏一波 ，这意味着要限制中国金融体系中资金流动的隐藏渠道。
摩根大通亚太区首席市场策略师Tai Hui表示：“尽管中国政府愿意在短期内提供流动性，但许多国内投资者注意到星际骷髅兵 ，中国政府的长期目标仍然是去杠杆化和降低金融风险。投资者可能会保持谨慎。”
尽管摩根士丹利资本国际公司（MSCI）将中国股票纳入其全球指数，上证综指本月下降了8.1%，为2016年1月份以来的最差表现，而人民币汇率则下跌了2.6%。债券市场表现突出，由于投资者寻求避险，10年期债券收益跌至两个月低点。
上周女流姐 ，美国总统特朗普威胁要对从中国进口的2000亿美元的商品征收关税，如果中国政府采取报复行动，再继续对2000亿美元的商品征收关税。尽管白宫贸易顾问Peter Navarro周一试图缓解投资者对美国贸易政策的担忧，但人们对中国经济能否经受住特朗普的持续攻击而感到不安。
周一美国股市终于出现疲软迹象，其他地区的股市也开始下跌。截至6月20日当周，全球股票基金的赎回规模达到130亿美元。一些全球最大的资产管理公司正在削减风险，同时增加现金持有量。
中国许多资产管理公司也有同感。
申万宏源的策略师钱启敏表示：“由于目前仍然难以判断贸易紧张局势的影响，市场可能会继续下跌，投资者将继续降低风险。”
A deepening sense of unease is rippling through China’s financial markets.
The benchmark Shanghai stock index has tumbled 20 percent in just five months to enter a bear market. The yuan is heading for its longest losing streak in four years in Hong Kong. Corporate defaults are mounting.
There are homegrown reasons for the concern: the nation’s deleveraging campaign is reducing the amount of liquidity available -- threatening growth in the world’s second-largest economy. Then throw in an unpredictable trade war with the U.S., and investors are facing a long list of reasons to sell.
Official efforts to calm nerves范书恺 , from cutting reserve ratios to publishing upbeat editorials in financial newspapers, have had little effect so far. The Shanghai Composite Index’s failure to hold above 3,000 -- long seen as a level that would prompt state intervention -- has reduced appetite for bargain hunting. The gauge has been technically oversold for the past six days, the longest stretch since 2013, and losses in the stock market have totaled $1.8 trillion since January.
"Fundamentals in China are very bad," said Hao Hong, chief strategist at Bocom International Holdings Co. "Selling pressure in the market is still very big."
The Shanghai Composite lost 0.5 percent on Tuesday, led by energy and financial shares. The tech-heavy Shenzhen index had already entered a bear market in February. The MSCI China Index of mostly offshore stocks has fallen 14 percent from its 2018 high.
The selloff is a stark reminder of how quickly things can unravel in China -- only months ago, it had looked like investors were finally getting a better deal after years of disappointing returns. The Shanghai Composite had its best start to a year since 2009, while back then the currency was surging at its fastest pace since at least 2007.
The fall back to earth looks more like 2015, when the bursting of an equity bubble and surprise currency devaluation roiled global markets. While officials eventually succeeded in bringing the nation’s markets under control, they’ve sought to tackle the bigger issue of excessive debt本·贝克曼 , which meant restricting the hidden channels of capital that flow throughout China’s financial system.
“Many onshore investors remain mindful that the authorities still have deleveraging and financial-risk reduction as their long term objective, despite willingness to provide liquidity in the near term,” said Tai Hui, JPMorgan Asset Management’s chief market strategist for Asia Pacific. “Sentiment could remain cautious.”
The Shanghai Composite has tumbled 8.1 percent this month, poised for its worst performance since January 2016封灵师传奇 , even as MSCI Inc. added the nation’s shares to its global gauges, while the yuan has dropped 2.6 percent. Bonds are the standout, with the 10-year yield falling to a two-month low医道丹途 , as investors sought refuge.
Losses accelerated last week after President Donald Trump threatened duties on $200 billion in Chinese imports风向仪吉他谱 , and another $200 billion after that if Beijing retaliates. While White House trade adviser Peter Navarro on Monday sought to ease investor concerns about U.S. trade policy异界兽帝 , there’s jitters over whether China’s economy can withstand a sustained attack from Trump.
Markets elsewhere have also started to buckle, with U.S. stocks finally showing signs of weakness on Monday. Redemptions from equity funds globally reached $13 billion in the week through June 20, and some of the world’s biggest money-managers are trimming risk while adding to their cash holdings.
Many of their Chinese counterparts feel the same way.
"The market may keep falling since it’s still hard to gauge the impact of trade tensions,” said Qian Qimin, a Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co. strategist in Shanghai. “Investors will keep cutting risk.”
Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg | Translated by Vanessa Chen
